The All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX) has surpassed its previous cycle highs from 2021, which is around 59.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line shows the price of the All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX).
The blue line is the 50-day moving average of ACWX.
The red line is the 200-day moving average of ACWX.
The Takeaway: The All Country World Index ex-US ETF just broke out of a long consolidation. The base lasted 992 trading days. At its worst, ACWX dropped 32.8% during that time.
Now, it’s above the prior cycle highs from 2021, around 59. This level matters. It capped price for years. Breaking it is a shift.
ACWX is showing a strong trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the 50-day above the 200-day, and both moving averages sloping upward—this is a clear bullish setup.
Year to date, ACWX is up over 13%. The US market, measured by the S&P 500, is down 0.51%. That’s a big...
Yesterday, we saw the S&P 500 close down 1.6%. This marks the 20th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.
The Takeaway: That’s the 20th time this year it has fallen by 1% or more in a single day.
It sounds like a lot, but it’s not unusual. Since 1950, the average year has about 25 of these moves. So we’re still below that.
Still, 20 is a good point to pause and ask: Is this normal volatility, or something more?
If there were real fear, we’d likely see huge spikes in the VIX or credit spreads. So far, we haven’t.
Volatility is part of any market, even in strong years. But price tells the story. A few isolated drops don’t mean much. A cluster of them might.
If we start seeing five or six of these in a short time, that could signal a...
It’s been 118 days since Bitcoin last closed at an all-time high. Yesterday, it finally broke that level. This is now the highest daily close ever.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the price of Bitcoin.
The blue line in the top panel is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin.
The red line in the top panel is the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin.
The greenandredlines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the price of Bitcoin. When the line is green it indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.
The Takeaway: Year to date, Bitcoin is up more than 14%. Over the past year, it’s gained 49%.
The trend is strong.
Bitcoin is 15.6% above its 50-day moving average and 14.9% above the 200-day. Both averages are...
Over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are above their December 2024 highest high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
The black line in the bottom panelis the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their December 2024 highest high.
The Takeaway: Right now, over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their December 2024 highest high.
That’s the most we’ve seen since February 19, 2025.
This matters because December is when I first saw signs of weakness.
Momentum was slowing. Trends were rolling over. Fewer stocks were hitting new highs.
At the same time, more stocks were declining than advancing.
Sentiment was bearish—even while the index was still pushing new highs.
That told me the surface strength didn’t match what was happening underneath. So I anchored to the December highest highs as a key level. If stocks were below...
49.5% of S&P 500 stocks are now in strong uptrends.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
In green is the % of S&P 500 stocks above both their 200-day and their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term uptrend.
In yellow is the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day but below their 50-day moving averages. This indicates a longer-term uptrend but a short-term mess.
In red is the % of S&P 500 stocks below their 200-day and below their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term downtrend.
The Takeaway: This chart does a good job of showing what’s really happening under the surface. And something just changed.
For 47 trading days, more S&P 500 stocks were trading below both their 200-day and 50-day moving averages. That trend had been in place for a while.
58% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day new highs yesterday.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 20-day highs.
The red line in the bottom panel is the trigger for a breadth thrust.
The gray shading highlights when in a breadth thrust regime.
The Takeaway: Market participation is heating up!
Yesterday, my favorite breadth thrust officially fired.
The breadth thrust I am talking about is when 55% or more of the S&P 500 stocks reach a 20-day new high.
Yesterday, we saw 58% of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day new highs,
This means we have entered a breadth thrust regime that lasts one year.
It’s not an all-clear signal or a guarantee that the market will go up, but this breadth thrust regime points to healthy market leadership conditions and...
In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.
We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls.
And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.
The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record.
The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.
Gold has been in an uptrend for the past 358 trading days, marking the 8th-longest trend since the 1970s.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the upper panel indicates the price of gold. The blue line represents the 50-day moving average, while the red line shows the 200-day moving average of gold.
The black bars in the bottom panel indicate days when the 50-day average is greater than the 200-day average.
The Takeaway: To clarify, I identify a strong uptrend when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. Currently, gold is experiencing one of the longest uptrends in the past 60 years, ranking as the eighth longest overall so far. At this point, there are no signs of this trend slowing down, as it continues to move upward and to the right on the chart. Therefore, it's difficult to be pessimistic about gold at this time.
However, Right now the 50-day moving average is 12.4% above the 200-day moving average. The last time the trend...
After 5 months of consolidating, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline line has closed at an all-time high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line represents the S&P 500’s Advance-Decline line.
The Takeaway: The Advance-Decline Line is one of the purest ways to analyze market breadth to assess overall market strength.
It measures the number of stocks participating or not.
The concept is super simple.
We add the number of stocks moving higher and subtract the number of stocks that are declining. Then, we add that sum to the previous day's Advance-Decline Line value.
When the Advance-Decline Line rises, it indicates broad market participation. Conversely, when it falls, this suggests that more stocks are declining than advancing, which is a sign of market weakness.
Currently, the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line is at its highest level ever, which indicates that market internals are strong.
This type of strength supports the potential for a sustainable...
The size of the lower wick for the S&P 500 in April was 15.2%.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The greenand red candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black bars in the bottom panel represent the size of the lower wick in percentage terms.
The Takeaway: What is a wick?
A wick refers to the lines on a candle in a candlestick chart. A wick indicates the fluctuations of a stock's price in relation to its opening and closing prices.
A lower wick indicates how much sellers drove the price down, followed by buyers stepping in with a significant response. Typically, when we see a long lower wick, it signals a potential transition from a bearish to a bullish environment.
It's a valuable tool for us to understand market psychology and potential trend shifts.
In April, the S&P 500 showed a significantly large lower wick, measuring over 15.2% in size. Other instances of wicks this...
The average global market is only in a -8.0% drawdown, while the average S&P 500 stock is in a -19.6% drawdown.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line shows the average S&P 500 stock 52-week drawdown.
The blue line shows the average global market 52-week drawdown.
The Takeaway: I first pointed out a possible shift in leadership from the US to the rest of the world back in March. This was confirmed by the relative ratio of...
