The All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX) has surpassed its previous cycle highs from 2021, which is around 59.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line shows the price of the All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX).
The blue line is the 50-day moving average of ACWX.
The red line is the 200-day moving average of ACWX.
The Takeaway: The All Country World Index ex-US ETF just broke out of a long consolidation. The base lasted 992 trading days. At its worst, ACWX dropped 32.8% during that time.
Now, it’s above the prior cycle highs from 2021, around 59. This level matters. It capped price for years. Breaking it is a shift.
ACWX is showing a strong trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the 50-day above the 200-day, and both moving averages sloping upward—this is a clear bullish setup.
Year to date, ACWX is up over 13%. The US market, measured by the S&P 500, is down 0.51%. That’s a big...
Yesterday, we saw the S&P 500 close down 1.6%. This marks the 20th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.
The Takeaway: That’s the 20th time this year it has fallen by 1% or more in a single day.
It sounds like a lot, but it’s not unusual. Since 1950, the average year has about 25 of these moves. So we’re still below that.
Still, 20 is a good point to pause and ask: Is this normal volatility, or something more?
If there were real fear, we’d likely see huge spikes in the VIX or credit spreads. So far, we haven’t.
Volatility is part of any market, even in strong years. But price tells the story. A few isolated drops don’t mean much. A cluster of them might.
If we start seeing five or six of these in a short time, that could signal a...
It’s been 118 days since Bitcoin last closed at an all-time high. Yesterday, it finally broke that level. This is now the highest daily close ever.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the price of Bitcoin.
The blue line in the top panel is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin.
The red line in the top panel is the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin.
The greenandredlines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the price of Bitcoin. When the line is green it indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.
The Takeaway: Year to date, Bitcoin is up more than 14%. Over the past year, it’s gained 49%.
The trend is strong.
Bitcoin is 15.6% above its 50-day moving average and 14.9% above the 200-day. Both averages are...
