The White House Wild Card
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Before we get into a recap of Herb on the Street and my Red Flag Alerts, this quick comment on the upcoming changing of the guard at The White House….
Everybody thinks they know what the best investment strategies will be starting with Monday’s inauguration. Some of it will be right, but one thing that hasn’t changed is an old saying I have…
If you’re hanging your hat on an investment thesis that hinges on the action of courts, congress or a regulatory body – lotsa luck!
There are exceptions to every rule, of course - but they’re the ultimates in wild cards… based on the number of supposedly smart people I’ve seen over the years who think they know, until it turns out, they really don’t… because they never really do.
Moving on…
Things You May Have Missed…
I don’t know about you, but since the first of the year instead of quieting down, things have ramped up… and I can barely keep up with the firehose of noise, news and content.
If that’s you, you may have missed a few of my latest… all of which are easy to fall through the cracks either because they’re either too wonky, too obscure or simply of too little interest.
Still… here’s a quick recap of some of what I believe are the highlights…
1. Why Red Flags STILL fly over Signet
Signet’s $SIG stock may have already been pummeled, but make no mistake: When companies start messing with definitions of key metrics and using them interchangeably to the point it feels like a shell game - watch out!
2. Round-Tripping at Symbotic
Was Symbotic’s $SYMrecent deal with Walmart $WMT a round-trip transaction or something more? In the least, the whole thing – starting with the way it was portrayed in its press release versus the actual SEC filing announcing the deal – is curious to the point of raising more than a few red flags.
3. Erie’s Accounting Mess
Who doesn’t like a good accounting story? Okay, okay! By the nature of its business Erie Indemnity $ERIEmay be too off-the-grid for most. And if so, the accounting puzzle I tried to piece together makes it even that much less appealing. But trust me - this one was fun to report and if you’re into accounting mysteries, I’m pretty sure you will enjoy it.
4. Risks to Dolby’s Monopoly?
Dolby $DLB is one of those companies that falls through the cracks of coverage. The big question: Is open-source competition, led by its very own customers, with Samsung in the lead, finally poised to take a chunk out of its business?
5. Who is Behind that P.I.K. at GFL?
Buried in my week-ago report on GFL Environmental’s $GFLdeal to sell part of its Environmental Services biz was a comment from the CEO that acknowledged “financial engineering” revolving around a payment-in-kind transaction tied to the deal. And that was only after an analyst who had scrubbed the numbers had asked about “a billion missing in there somewhere.” One thing the company hasn’t done is disclosed who the P.I.K. is with. I pinged investor relations the other day, asking if more details will be in a filing. I haven’t heard back.
DISCLAIMER: This is solely my opinion based on my observations and interpretations of events, based on published facts and filings, and should not be construed as personal investment advice. (Because it isn’t!) I do not have a position in this stock.
Feel free to contact me at herb@herbgreenberg.com.